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Confidence distributions provide a holistic summary of the information that the data contains about a parameter in a statistical model, expressed using a probability distribution over the parameter space. They provide a frequentist analogue of Bayesian posterior distributions, but without the requirement to specify a prior distribution. In randomised clinical trials, confidence distributions are particularly useful for summarising the evidence for a treatment effect, allowing the strength of evidence to be quantified using a confidence statement such as Conf(Benefit)=92%.

In this talk, I will review the application of confidence distributions to clinical trials using various case studies and then present promising lines of future research. Confidence distributions are useful at all stages of a clinical trial, from design to monitoring to analysis. They are particularly promising for adaptive designs, where they can be used to adapt design features such as the randomisation probabilities, the sample size or the available treatments. These confidence-adaptive designs provide various advantages over other types of adaptive designs, by making use of connections with long-standing frequentist group sequential theory that allows less reliance on extensive simulation.

In some contexts, confidence distributions may provide the advantages of a Bayesian analysis but with less complexity and sensitivity to assumptions. They have recently found their way into major medical journals and are a promising new tool for clinical biostatisticians.

Ian Marschner is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Sydney and Director of Biostatistics at the NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre in Sydney, Australia. He has over 30 years of experience as a biostatistician working on clinical trials research across many therapeutic areas, with a recent focus on innovative clinical trial design. He has published extensively on new statistical methodology for biostatistical applications and is a Chief Investigator for the Australian Trials Methodology Research Network. Formerly, he was Head of the Department of Statistics at Macquarie University, Director of Biometrics at Pfizer and Associate Professor of Biostatistics at Harvard University.

This seminar will be held in person and online via Zoom. It will be recorded.

Date and time

Friday, 21 November 2025

9:30 - 10:30am AEST

Location

Ground floor conference rooms

Monash SPHPM

553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004

Zoom details

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Meeting ID: 834 8659 5340

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