Developing risk prediction models using nested case-control data: methods and applications

Thursday, 28 May 2015
9.30am - 10.30am
Vernon Collins Room, Royal Children's Hospital
50 Flemington Rd Parkville
Melbourne 3052

In the last 10-15 years, there has been an explosion of prediction models developed to predict risk of various diseases. The main objective of a risk prediction model is to predict the absolute risk of a disease. For this reason, cohort study design has been used in almost all studies that build or compare risk prediction models because cheaper alternatives such as case-control study cannot be used to validly estimate absolute risk.

In this talk, I will examine the feasibility of estimating absolute risk using nested case-control data. Two approaches will be compared using both a simulated and real dataset from a nested case-control study of coronary heart disease conducted within the Singaporean Chinese Health Study (SCHS) cohort. Finally, I will demonstrate how the methods can be used to investigate the usefulness of two biomarkers, highly-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum creatinine to improve prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, on top of the traditional risk factors used by the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) risk calculator.


Dr Agus Salim

Dr Agus Salim

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
La Trobe University

Dr Agus Salim is a Senior Lecturer with the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University. He came to La Trobe in April 2013 having previously held positions at the Australian National University and National University of Singapore.

Agus has over 15 years as a biostatistician and has extensive records of collaboration with clinicians and epidemiologists and has received competitive national-level funding from the Singapore National Medical Research Council (NMRC) for his applied and methodological works. His main methodological interest is in the area of survival analysis with a focus on analysis of nested case-control data. More recently he has developed an interest in the analysis of high-throughput data from next-generation sequencing.

Agus has received invitations to present his work at several international conferences. In 2012, he was an invited speaker at the 33rd annual conference of International Society for Clinical Biostatistics (ISCB) and in 2014 he was invited to be a speaker/mentor at the US-NIH Capacity Building program for leading Indonesian biomedical researchers.  More recently, he has been invited to speak at the forthcoming Asian Regional Section of the International Association of Statistical Computing.

Agus has been serving as Associate Editor for BMC Medical Research Methodology since early 2013 and was elected to the Epidemiology Committee of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics (ISCB) in 2014.